Lower Rates in 2024, F*#%!

It’s bee a wild couple of years to say the least. Historically low interest rates 2019-2022 and then a rocket ship to the moon. To be honest, it’s 100% self-inflicted between the government printing money like they are “fun coupons” to the Fed increasing rates to thwart off the long-term effects of inflation. Who was sounding the alarm on Capital Hill when this was going on!?

You see, inflation 101 is simply “too many dollars, chasing too few of goods”. The Fed should know that, so should those running the ship. Seems like they don’t though, which is why inflation was never “transitory”. What a joke.

For 2024: UBS and other major investors are predicting that the Fed lowers their rate 2.50% to 2.75% by the end of next year. Although this is great news for those waiting to buy a home, this is also horrible news for all.

“Although this is great news for those waiting to buy a home, this is also horrible news for all. ”

On the chart below (MBS HWY) we are sitting in the middle of the largest first-time buyer demographic since the early 60’s. Looking at the post-millennials, this trend continues…! The supply (housing) is historically low and the demand (buyers) are through the roof. Those waiting on the sidelines today will unfortunately step into a knife fight and likely have to offer way more than what the home is worth.

Simply put, supply-n-demand.

Bottom line is that if you’re sitting on the sidelines but CAN purchase today, DO IT! You will be able to refinance in 12-18 months when rates come back down.

Next year’s market will bring a whole new set of problems along with it.